Russia continues to harbor troops near the Ukraine border, prompting the U.S. and NATO allies to prepare for an invasion of the former Soviet territory.
As of mid-January, Russia has stationed upwards of 100,000 troops near the Russia-Ukraine border. This resulted in NATO starting preparation for action if Russia were to invade the non-NATO affiliated country. According to an article from the BBC, Russian aggression is fueled by “Ukraine’s move towards European institutions, and NATO in particular. Its core demand is for the West to guarantee Ukraine will not join NATO.”
President Biden responded to the Russian movement of troops by reallocating American troops to nearby Eastern European countries. According to an ABC report, s of February 2nd, Biden assigned an additional 2,000 troops to Germany and Poland while moving about 1,000 troops out of Germany into Romania.
A move by Russia into Ukraine could lead to escalations on either side, creating fears of war. When asked about the United States’ response if Russia were to invade Ukraine, President Biden responded, “There will be enormous consequences if [Putin] were to go in and invade the entire country, or a lot less as well.”
In addition, the U.S. and NATO have rejected Russian security demands, including the demand Ukraine doesn’t join NATO. The U.S. and allies have also promised action against Russia if they were to invade, promising “massive economic sanctions and consequences,” says Julianne Smith, a U.S. Ambassador to NATO.
A Russian invasion of Ukraine would have significant consequences worldwide. “It would change the world,” said President Joe Biden, “it would be the largest invasion since World War II.”
This isn’t the first time Russia has been aggressive towards Ukraine; Russia and Ukraine have a history of disputes dating back to the Soviet era. The Ukrainian fight for independence from Russia started in 1917, with the Ukraine War of Independence leading to the establishment of the Ukrainian Soviets Socials Republic (USS). However, while the USS was established, it was still simply a region under Soviet Russia and still had to follow Russian laws and orders. It wasn’t until 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, that Ukraine officially announced its independence from Russia.
After the Ukrainian presidential election in 2004, Ukraine looked towards better relations with Russia when pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych won the presidential election. However, many voters claimed the election was rigged, causing protest and reelection. He lost to Viktor Yushchenko, a candidate who supported the West.
In 2013, a decision by President Viktor Yanukovych to not sign the Ukraine- European Union Association Agreement sparked protest in which the protesters took over government buildings. In 2014, pro-Russian forces clashed with protesters resulting in 80 deaths. In March 2014, un-marked Russian troops invaded Ukraine, then ran the vote for the annexation of Crimea, which the EU and U.S. said was illegal but took no action.
In 2016, Ukraine took pro-western action by signing the DCFTA with the EU, where Ukrainian citizens could participate in visa-free travel to certain areas. However, this action would anger the Russian government as they were anti-West. As a result, Ukraine would continue to disassociate with the Russian Federation in the following years.
Finally, in 2021, Ukrainian President Zelensky appealed to newly elected President Joe Biden to join NATO. A month later, Zelensky imposed sanctions on Putin’s godfather, Viktor Medvedchuk. This action was soon followed by Russia taking troops to the Ukraine border in the spring of 2021, claiming it was a “training exercise.” Things eventually escalated to where they are now.